Fertilizer Supply and Food Security
From days gone by through the present, the importance of the macronutrients nitrogen [N], phosphorus [P], and potassium [K] for crop production has been and is known. In today’s world where such issues as production sustainability, food security, and tariffs have become increasingly important, the importance of a continued domestic supply of those nutrients has become more important than ever before. The following points about domestic macronutrient supply should be considered.
• Nitrogen fertilizers can be manufactured in the U.S. by the Haber-Bosch process, but price concerns are always troublesome. The U.S. has recently increased domestic production of natural gas [a key component in the manufacture of N fertilizers]. Also, very little N fertilizer is applied to soybeans.
• The U.S. has a supply of phosphate ore, but it is exhaustable. Furthermore, 1) reliance on phosphate fertilizer imports by the U.S. is increasing because of the increased demand for P fertilizers, and 2) access to U.S. phosphate reserves can be hampered by regulatory challenges.
• U.S. farmers have had to rely on imports for more than 90% of the K supply that they have used/are using, and this has created concern about maintaining an uninterrupted supply of this nutrient that is needed by all U.S. crop producers to sustain or increase crop yields.
The discovery and development of a new U.S. potash supply is described in articles titled “USDA helps bring Michigan potash to U.S. growers” and ““Mineral discovery could mean billions for Michigan”. This is good news for U.S. farmers who regularly apply potash fertilizers to their crop fields, and to those in this country who desire to maintain or increase the sustainability of a secure food supply that comes from U.S. farmers. The development of this domestic potash source is occurring under the auspices of the Michigan Potash and Salt Co. [MPSC, “The U.S. Potash Project”], and is being partially funded by grants and loans from USDA and the U.S. Dept. of Energy. The development of this domestic potash supply will reduce farmer dependence on potash imports from countries such as Canada, Russia, Belarus, and China. Details about the world’s production and use of potash are provided in an article titled “Potash statistics and information”.
In an article titled “Potash and Phosphate as Critical Minerals” from the The Fertilizer Institute, the case is made for maintaining the fertilizer supply chain as an essential link to U.S. food security. This will involve recognizing the critical importance of developing domestic potash and phosphate resources, and increasing the efficiency of the permitting and regulatory processes for their development in this country. Also, import of both potash and phosphate is subject to supply chain disruptions and the vagaries of trade between/among countries.
An article titled “Tariff Threats and US Fertilizer Imports” from the Univ. of Illinois provides insight into how proposed tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China could affect U.S. farmers.
• Tariffs would especially impact the cost of K imports from Canada, which in turn would increase the price paid by farmers for this essential crop nutrient.
• As mentioned above, the U.S. has increased production of natural gas, which is used to manufacture N fertilizers. Thus, tariffs imposed on the importation of natural gas from Canada would have minimal impact on N fertilizer prices.
• Very little of the P imports to the U.S. have come from countries which will be immediately affected by tariffs [Canada, Mexico, China] , so the price of P fertilizer products will be little affected by currently proposed tariffs.
• Currently proposed tariffs will have the largest direct impact on the price of K fertilizers since a large percentage is imported from Canada.
Composed by Larry G. Heatherly, Feb. 2025, larryh91746@gmail.com